I have secretly held this prediction for a long time, but now I want to get it out before it becomes “conventional wisdom:”
The presidential race will be a landslide win for Obama. (I think of a landslide as more than 5 points. This is the presidency we’re talking about, after all.)
There are many factors pointing to a big Obama win. Here is my Top Ten List, in no particular order:
1. Historians and pollsters agree that the most reliable indication of who will win the White House is the poll number for the question of whether or not America is on the wrong track. Currently 80% of Americans think that it is–a record for the poll.
2. Obama has out-fundraised McCain by an absolutely ridiculous amount (I’m not doing any research for this post so I don’t have the exact number.)
3. Americans currently line up with Democrats on EVERY major issue except one: Immigration. Unfortunately for McCain, he has broken from his party on this issue!
4. The Republican “brand” is at an all-time low, thanks to George W. and the many Republican Congressional scandals.
5. Both McCain and Obama have repeatedly called for a “clean” campaign. Since the 2000 race McCain has shown a genuine aversion to nasty tactics. This will only help Obama, who is running on a platform of change in politics. Furthermore, when all the 527s start releasing nasty anti-Obama ads, McCain will call for them to be stopped, with no avail, causing him to look ineffective. (Note: this has already happened at least once.)
6. Compare their speeches and speaking styles. Need more be said? P.S. Debates, which were not Obama’s strong suit against Hillary, will favor him over McCain.
7. Ageism/Racism. McCain would be the oldest person elected president. Polls have shown that people care more about their president being really old than being black OR a woman! (of course, we have to take these kind of sentiments with a grain of salt. We have had really old presidents.)
8. Conservatives hate McCain. Rush Limbaugh and Ann Coulter hate him as much as they hate John Kerry, as do more respectable conservatives like George F. Will and McLaughlin. Not only that, but I have heard these more “respectable” names admit personal affection for Obama.
9. Obama has proven a far superior campaign manager. His team is terrifically smart and disciplined. Let’s remember that McCain’s campaign has already collapsed once this primary cycle.
10. At Obama’s lowest point yet, which came after Pennsylvania, he still polled ahead of McCain by 2.2 points. At that time, the Wright controversy was in full effect, Hillary looked like she had changed the momentum, and McCain’s favorables were at an all time high. However, McCain has thus far completely failed to capitalize on the divisive primary. Since North Carolina, and a basic assurance of the Obama nomination, Obama has steadily crept back up day-by-day. Today he leads McCain by 5.5 points. (OK, I did a tiny bit of research.)
Well, that’s my list! In terms of when the “landslide” might become evident, remember this: on the day that Hillary drops out (or the days after) Obama is virtually guaranteed a least a 10-point bump. The crucial question of the entire campaign will be how McCain responds. Based on these factors that I have briefly described, I think that Obama will take the 10 points and never look back!
Go Democrats!